Find balance with a barbell strategy

Published:27 October 2023 14:44 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

There is growing confidence that US interest rates will stay higher for longer, which opens up opportunities for a barbell strategy in fixed income and equities. In fixed income, the rise in (real) yields improves forward-looking returns, and we believe that investment-grade debt offers decent yields. There is therefore no need for excessive credit-risktaking at this juncture. In equities, our short-term view is that there is a year-end rally in the making and that for investors with a longer investment horizon, higher-forlonger yields will support rather than challenge our view that the equity bull market still has legs.

BACKDROP
Not so long ago, markets looked like they were somewhat comforted by the fact that the most stringent monetary tightening cycle in years was coming to an end. However, recent events have made investors wary and unsettled the US Treasury markets: solid investment demand despite higher interest rates and a supportive fiscal policy are coinciding with a surprisingly resilient US economy. So, despite inflation (very) slowly falling, 10-year US Treasury yields have risen steadily, currently trading near their 16-year high at around 5%.

OUR EXPECTATIONS
While stubbornly elevated inflation prints have raised the possibility that US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will view the current policy rates as not restrictive enough, we believe that the rise in long-term interest rates has already led to tighter overall financial conditions, which in turn has partly offset the pressure on the Fed to further tighten policy. Our economists believe that falling inflation numbers in the coming months and a slowing labour market will prevent the Fed from raising interest rates further at its upcoming meetings. In fact we expect policy rates to remain on hold until Q3 2024 before a rate-cutting cycle begins. We have nevertheless revised our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yields up to 4.5% for the 3-month and 12-month horizons.

Equity table
Analyst:

Recommended instruments

NameISINSectorMarket Cap (m)RatingSustainability Rating
Toggle rowNameAXA SAISINFR0000120628SectorFinancialsMarket Cap (m)54,858RatingBuySustainability Rating4
Toggle rowNameUniCreditISINIT0005239360SectorFinancialsMarket Cap (m)20,752RatingBuySustainability Rating3
Toggle rowNameEmerson Electric CoISINUS2910111044SectorIndustrialsMarket Cap (m)48,333RatingBuySustainability Rating4
Toggle rowNameVinciISINFR0000125486SectorIndustrialsMarket Cap (m)49,763RatingBuySustainability Rating-