Our View in November

Published:28 November 2023 17:23 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

In times of need, it is less important why the pain subsides. The main thing is that it eases. The last few weeks have again shown how grateful financial markets are for painkillers. But the effect wears off over time.

It hurts when interest rates rise. It became really painful when the yield on 10year US government bonds climbed to 5 % in October. But then the Fed and the US Treasury reached into the medicine cabinet and took out the painkillers.

For its part, the US Federal Reserve did not touch key interest rates and sent the message that everything was under control. Of course, the Fed would not rule out further interest rate hikes, but as long as the economy cools down in an orderly fashion and inflation is not flaring up again, that was probably it for interest rate hikes in this cycle. At least that's what the markets read.

The Treasury on its part has announced which bonds it will issue in the first quarter to cover financing requirements. The fact that around 60% of the needs is being covered by short-dated bonds had a pain-relieving effect on markets. Normally this share is only 15 to 20%. Such a high proportion as now has only been recorded in times of crisis. The reason for the exception to the rule: there is too little demand for government bonds with longer maturities. The Treasury therefore did not want to risk yields rising further at the long end.

The markets have gratefully accepted this. And the painkiller is working in the short term. Only the causes of the pain have not been addressed. There is still a downturn looming. Therefore, we are maintaining our defensive portfolio allocation with an overweight in bonds and an underweight in equities.

Portfolio

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Strong Overweight
Neutral
Strong Underweight
Opportunities
  • The major central banks have probably completed their cycle of interest rate hikes
  • Technical factors could support equity markets until the end of the year
  • Record levels of insurance premiums mean insurance-linked securities may potentially absorb higher losses
Threats
  • Low pain tolerance of markets to higher bond yields
  • Stronger slowdown in the US economy still likely
  • Equity analysts with very optimistic earnings expectations for 2024
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Overview

Rates more likely to go down

The inflation rate for the eurozone fell significantly in October, from 4.3% to 2.9%, which was more than expected. Energy prices climbed in the same month last year, resulting in a correspondingly larger base effect. Although food prices are still contributing significantly to inflation, this is less pronounced than a few months ago. Ultimately, price pressure is easing across the board. In the US, too, inflation is likely to slow further in the coming months. This is also true for the core inflation rate. In view of the drastic interest rate hikes and falling inflation rates, the central banks no longer need to take any further action. The interest rate high has probably been reached in this interest rate cycle. The next rate moves will be downwards, not upwards - but this is something for coming year.

Opportunities
  • The Fed has reached the peak in the current interest rate cycle
  • The SNB has probably reached its key interest rate high
Threats
  • The ECB is in a dilemma due to a weak economy
  • The restrictive monetary policy increases the potential for financial market stress
Economy
Economy Overview

Robust growth in the US

In the third quarter, the US economy outperformed many other economies. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Consumers' wallets were still pretty loose recently. Private consumption was also fuelled by special effects. The hype surrounding the concert tours of singers Taylor Swift and Beyoncé as well as the two Hollywood blockbusters "Barbenheimer" (Barbie and Oppenheimer) have boosted the economy. It is unlikely that the strong growth will be repeated in the fourth quarter - things will cool down. The eurozone economy has already gone into reverse. The economy of the single currency area contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter. The decline in GDP is likely to be the prelude to a technical recession, as there is little hope of improvement in the fourth quarter.

Opportunities
  • Signs of a stabilisation at a low level have recently emerged in manufacturing
  • The recession in the US is delayed
Threats
  • The eurozone economy is struggling, and now the southern European countries are also coming under pressure
  • The global economic environment remains difficult
Bonds High Grade
Bonds High Grade Overview

Yields: Only a brief stint above 5 %

Yield trends have played a prominent role in recent weeks. In the US, the much-noticed yield on 10-year government bonds moved shorty above 5%. As yields in this maturity range are also the benchmark for long-term loans, financing conditions have tightened. The US Federal Reserve also referred to this several times at the most recent FOMC meeting. After the rise, however, things went abruptly in the other direction. A weaker than expected labour market, weaker leading economic indicators and a cautious central bank contributed to this. The economic slowdown that we expect in the US, but also in the eurozone, should drive yields down significantly in both the short and long term.

Opportunities
  • An economic slowdown would cause government bond prices to rise
  • We take the record-high forward sales of US government bonds as an indicator for falling yields
Threats
  • Easing recession risks could cause yields at the long end of the yield curve to rise again
  • Falling credit ratings may briefly come to the fore for investors
Bonds Investment Grade
Bonds Investment Grade Overview

Rate hikes are having an effect

At its last meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pointed to deteriorating financial conditions for households and companies, which are weighing on growth, the labour market and inflation. In other words, the interest rate hikes are taking effect. According to the investment bank Morgan Stanley, capital markets (especially mortgage rates which have climbed) are acting like an additional 80 basis points rate hike. This is good news for government bonds, as the peak in yields could be behind us. However, corporate bonds could be negatively impacted by this development, which could even lead to a recession. Profit margins are already falling and weaker cash flows as well as rising financing costs are weighing on credit ratings. As credit spreads do not adequately compensate for this risk, we recommend focussing on top qualities or keeping the duration short for lower qualities.

Opportunities
  • Government bond yields may already have peaked
  • Yield level above the current inflation rate again
Threats
  • Credit spreads compensate insufficiently for the impending economic slowdown
  • In a recession, credit spreads rise more sharply than risk-free yields fall
  • Highest risk with a combination of long duration, low credit rating and high leverage
Equities
Equities Overview

Under the spell of bond yields

Despite the impetus provided by the quarterly results, the global equity markets continued to be driven primarily by bond yields in the US. Equities were on a continued downward path since mid-October until the yield on 10-year US government bonds heralded a turnaround at just over 5%. Investors are now focussing on a possible Santa rally. If this were to happen, it would be more for technical reasons, as the outlook for the fourth quarter and for 2024 is moderate at best, particularly in Europe. Technical indicators and the reduced equity allocation of many investors would speak in favour of a rally towards year end. If interest rates in the US really have peaked, this would also be a plus. In the past, this has often led to a positive price trend. In the end, a possible rally will also depend on the central banks.

Opportunities
  • Profit growth in the USA in the third quarter
  • End of interest rate hikes reached
  • Low positioning could have a supportive effect if there were a Santa rally
Threats
  • The stock market is dependent on interest rate trends and is vulnerable
  • Leading indicators continue to point to a recession, which is not reflected in share prices
  • China's economic weakness is impacting European stocks
Equities Eurozone
Equities Eurozone Overview

The market is not budging

Despite a short-term recovery due to falling US government bond yields, the European market has been on a downward trend since July following a long sideways movement this year. Contrary to the statements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the signs for Europe continue to point to recession, which is underpinned by leading indicators. Companies are receiving fewer orders. The weakness of the Chinese economy is also acting as a brake. Companies have also become less positive about their business in North America. Cyclical sectors and smaller companies in particular are witnessing this. Only technical factors could help the market to rally towards the end of the year, as little news is expected from companies until 2024. In addition, investors' equity allocations are at a low level and some shares are trading at lower levels than a year ago.

Opportunities
  • Weaker euro should help companies
  • Low investor positioning and technical indicators favour a recovery
Threats
  • Weak leading indicators point to continued weak economic development
  • Negative order trend for companies and weak outlook for the coming quarters
  • Important markets such as China are suffering from low demand
Alternative Investments
Alternative Investments Overview

Insurance-linked Securities 

Will the record year be extended?

The losses due to bonds on the books of insurance companies and major loss events in recent years have caused the supply of insurance capital to shrink. The insurance premiums paid on the market have therefore risen to record levels. In the years 2014 to 2021, two to three times the expected losses were paid; today the factor is 6.9. In addition to the record premiums, the actual losses incurred are decisive for investors. 2023 was an unusually intense hurricane season due to increased water temperatures in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, cat bonds remained loss-free until recently. The devastating hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco (Mexico) hard, is likely to be the first loss of the current season. With total returns of plus 15 %, the funds are achieving records this season. Subject to future losses, the outlook for the coming year is also bright.

Opportunities
  • Record values for insurance premiums
  • Even higher losses can be absorbed with these premiums
  • El Niño phenomenon often lasts up to three years and favours the asset class
Threats
  • Natural disasters cannot be predicted
  • A once-in-a-100-years event is possible at any time which may lead to considerable losses
Cash
Cash Overview

No significant dollar weakness expected

The dollar has recently shown slight signs of weakness. The markets have come to realise that the Fed has reached the end of its interest rate hike cycle and that the next rate move will be downwards. So far, a further rate hike at the FOMC meeting in December had not been off the table. This has noticeably reduced the influence of monetary policy on the movements of the dollar, resulting in losses. However, we do not expect the dollar to continue to depreciate significantly in the coming months. International conflicts, economic uncertainty and the still large interest rate difference to most currency areas should support the greenback. The Swiss franc should also remain well supported in the current environment.

Opportunities
  • The Swiss franc remains well supported, also thanks to the SNB's currency interventions
  • The British pound has benefited from higher rates and the narrowing interest rate differential to the Fed
Threats
  • The euro no longer has support from monetary policy
  • Geopolitical risks are capping emerging market currencies