Health is our greatest good

Published:27 December 2023 15:02 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

Global economic growth is slowing, and this favours large-cap biopharmaceutical stocks given their highly defensive quality. During 2023, economic activity is expected to bottom, with inflation easing, which will favour the more cyclical parts of the healthcare sector, such as MedTech. This shows the overall attractiveness of the healthcare sector, as it offers compelling opportunities throughout the economic cycle. However, active management is required to get the most out of it. 

During the ongoing growth slowdown, healthcare remains our most preferred defensive sector, with a focus on large-cap biopharmaceutical companies. In fact, during the previous recessions that have occurred since 1945, the healthcare sector generated positive earnings-per-share growth. This is because the sector consists of many highquality companies that are characterised by their sustainable competitive positioning, their capability to innovate, and the high demand for their products in both good and bad times. Thus, biopharmaceutical companies have strong pricing power. Moreover, given the sector’s low sensitivity to input costs, still-high inflation is less of an issue. 

In this environment, healthcare services and managed care, in particular, should also be considered by investors, since they share a similar resilient fundamental set-up. Given the strong relative performance of large-cap biopharmaceutical companies in 2022, there is a risk that these stocks will experience a period of underperformance in 2023, when economic activity bottoms and interest rates stop rising. On the positive side, the healthcare sector is much bigger than just defensive large-cap biopharmaceutical companies. Take MedTech, for example. After the valuation reset in 2022, it is much more attractively valued. Furthermore, given its more cyclical bias, it is well positioned to outperform from a recovery in 2023 and into 2024. More specifically, MedTech as a subsector is more cyclical, since non-essential surgeries are more likely to be performed in less stressful economic times. 

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Analyst:

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