Our View in January

Published:30 January 2024 18:30 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

In the end, 2023 turned out to be a positive year from a financial market perspective. This had a lot to do with hopes for the new year, in particular with the prospect of interest rate cuts. However, economic risks have been ignored. We do not, and tactically favour bonds over equities.

The weather has turned cold in much of Europe. You can't help but notice when you leave the house in the morning. You don't even have to look at the thermometer. But a glance at the thermometer or the weather app will help you be prepared.

Parallels are often drawn between the weather and financial markets. This may have something to do with the fact that the reputation of weather and financial market forecasts are equally good or equally bad. Or because it makes the somewhat dry subject matter of the financial markets a little more tangible. We have all experienced good and bad weather. We have been surprised by rain or enjoyed the winter sun in the mountains. As the saying goes: There is no such thing as bad weather, only bad clothing.

Somehow, this also applies to the portfolio. We don't know exactly if and when it is going to rain or when the sun will break through the clouds. But that doesn't mean we can't dress appropriately and be prepared for all eventualities.

So we are pleased with the markets' performance at the end of the year. But that does not make us reckless. One ill-considered step on the icy staircase can end painfully. That's why we are taking a closer look and prefer to be a little more cautious. This is our motto for the portfolio at the start of the year and the reason we are underweight in equities and overweight in bonds.

Portfolio

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Strong Overweight
Neutral
Strong Underweight
Opportunities
  • Inflation continues to retreat
  • High-yield bonds with a short residual term
  • Insurance-linked securities offer diversification and yield
Threats
  • Economic risks have not disappeared
  • US stock market is dominated by a handful of stocks
Economy
Economy Overview

New year, old problems

The markets are harbouring hopes of a soft landing. However, we remain sceptical. This is due to the catch-up effects after the COVID pandemic, which led to a special economic situation in 2023. These effects will be on the wane and the interest rate hikes by the central banks will have a negative impact. Added to this are geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East. This will also have an economic impact. The energy infrastructure that has been built up in Europe over decades needs to be reorganised. In the US, the growth of recent years has been at the expense of a sharp rise in national debt and will restrict room for manoeuvre financially in the near future. And in China, with the end of the property boom, the construction industry has ceased to be a central pillar of growth. At least the falling inflation rates offer hope. This gives central banks space for monetary easing in the coming year.

Opportunities
  • Falling inflation rates open up possibility for central banks to cut interest rates
  • Signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing sector - albeit at low levels
Threats
  • The eurozone remains economically depressed
  • Despite an improved outlook, the global economic environment remains difficult
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Overview

Rate cuts in sight

The central banks are able to cut interest rates in 2024: inflation rates have fallen considerably in recent quarters. And most central banks have raised interest rates significantly. They are now in the restrictive area, where key interest rates are above inflation rates. At the same time, economic weaknesses cannot be overlooked. The eurozone is in recession, growth in the US is set to slow significantly and China is facing a whole range of structural difficulties. If the economic environment deteriorates and inflation rates continue to fall, central banks will cut interest rates in 2024. In our view, the Fed could cut the key interest rate by 125 basis points and the ECB by 150 basis points. For Switzerland, however, we expect the policy rate to remain unchanged. They are low at 1.75 % and the inflation is likely to rise again slightly in the coming months.

Opportunities
  • Inflation rates in the US and the eurozone will fall towards the central bank target of 2% by the middle of the year
  • Easing inflationary pressure opens up scope for interest rate cuts
Threats
  • Unexpected second-round effects could fuel inflation again and stand in the way of monetary easing
  • Continued solid growth of the US economy could prevent monetary easing in the US
Bonds High Grade
Bonds High Grade Overview

Normalisation of the yield curve 

We expect interest rate cuts to be reflected in a lower level for shorter maturities. If central banks start to ease monetary policy, the current inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, will return to a normal shape where long maturities are more attractive than shorter ones. As the prospect of falling policy rates has gained traction in capital markets in recent months, yields on long-dated government bonds have already moved down noticeably. The financial markets have thus anticipated interest rate cuts. We now even expect yields at the long end of the yield curve to rise slightly - the significant fall in interest rates at the long end of the yield curve in December went too far.

Opportunities
  • Economic slowdown will cause government bond prices to rise
  • Record forward sales of US government bonds is a counter-indicator, which also speaks in favour of falling yields
Threats
  • Easing recession risks could cause yields to rise again at the long end
  • Fed could cut interest rates only slightly due to positive economic development
Bonds Investment Grade
Bonds Investment Grade Overview

Uncertain forecasts

Economic history has been rewritten with the lockdowns during the COVID pandemic. Based on the macroeconomic models that applied until 2019, a recession is imminent. However, the market is expecting a "soft" or a "no-landing". We expect, in view of the uncertainty, a recession and higher credit spreads. Nevertheless, we recommend high-yield bonds for short maturities because they react less sensitively. The credit spreads are sufficient for profits even if the US economy falls into recession. If, on the other hand, the market proves to be right, double-digit profits are on offer. For longer maturities, however, we advise against credit risk and favour government bonds. A mix of both strategies should smooth portfolio returns, regardless of the direction the economy ultimately takes. Overall, these are good prospects for the bond markets.

Opportunities
  • Bonds are attractive, even compared to the stock market
  • Falling inflation and lower yields add price gains to coupons
  • Soft landing scenario favours lower qualities
Threats
  • Looming recession makes longer corporate maturities less attractive than government bonds
  • Inflation fears could flare up in a soft landing scenario
Equities
Equities Overview

Start to a difficult year

The first trading days of the new year have been rather mixed. Again, large-cap US stocks which have contributed to the strong performance observed in the MSCI World in 2023 have been in the spotlight. The economic recovery is expected to continue due to improved corporate earnings after a weak year and interest rate cuts which are not triggered by a recession. The latter in particular will in 2024 tip the balance after markets have priced in several rate cuts amid positive economic growth. If the US experiences a recession and the recession, which is already underway in Europe, turns out to be even deeper, prices are likely to fall after the increase of valuations. The US markets could lose their valuation premium compared to the rest of the world before the first interest rate cuts, even if all markets perform negatively in absolute terms.

Opportunities
  • Expected interest rate cuts should provide support for stock markets
  • If the US is spared a recession, profits could surprise on the upside
  • Some markets such as China are trading at historically low levels
Threats
  • Recession in the US is imminent and not priced in
  • After a strong performance, markets are all the more dependent on key interest rates
  • Dominance of US equities leads to concentration risk in the MSCI World Index
Equities US
Equities US Overview

The best-case is priced in

The main drivers for the good performance of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 last year were the Magnificent 7 (Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla). Without them, the recovery was rather weak. There was no recession in 2023, but we expect it to emerge in 2024. It can also be assumed that key interest rates will fall, whether in the context of a recession or not, as inflation falls significantly. At the current valuation level, the market is almost priced for perfection, so the risk on the downside predominates. In the first week of the new year, this led to heavy price losses in an overbought situation, particularly for technology stocks. Small and mid-cap stocks were unable to escape this trend, but may be able to benefit in 2024 due to their high valuation discount. However, they are more cyclical and therefore more susceptible to recession.

Opportunities
  • Key interest rate cuts would support the market or even lead to valuation expansion
  • Smaller and medium-sized companies with significant valuation discounts
Threats
  • US equities already priced for perfection and therefore vulnerable to setbacks
  • Continued high probability of a recession
  • High profit expectations combined with cautious corporate comments
Commodities
Commodities Overview

Gold  
Record high and now?

Gold retained its lustre in 2023 even though it was a difficult year for commodities in general. The other precious metals, i.e. silver, platinum and palladium, were easily beaten by gold. Most recently, expectations of interest rate cuts drove gold to a new record high. In the short term, however, the upside potential is likely to be limited. This is supported by bullish positioning on the futures markets and the lack of inflows into listed gold funds. However, we believe that the conditions for gold will improve over the course of the coming year, as opportunity costs will fall with the prospect of interest rate cuts. Gold will also benefit from its quality as a safe haven. This is because the geopolitical situation remains tense while at the same a recession is looming in the US. This should revitalise demand for listed gold funds and could drive gold prices above previous records in the new year.

Opportunities
  • Interest rate cut speculation increases attractiveness of interest-free investments
  • Fragile geopolitical environment reinforces safe haven status
  • Looming recession in the US is supportive
Threats
  • Speculative positions indicate an overbought level
  • Technical sideways movement for more than three years
Cash
Cash Overview

No significant dollar weakness expected

The greenback has come under some pressure in view of the Fed's change in tone, as can be seen from the falling dollar index. In our view, however, it would be premature to expect a sustained weakness of the dollar. Politically and economically, the world will be busy in the coming year. In the US, the presidential election will take place in November. The historical pattern shows that in election years, the dollar gains significant strength from mid-year onwards. Election polls are then usually becoming more precise: uncertainty recedes and the greenback appreciates. So there will be a lot of movement in the coming months - especially if central banks actually start to ease their monetary policy. This uncertainty benefits the dollar in the role as a safe haven.

Opportunities
  • The dollar will remain in demand in 2024
  • The Swiss franc remains well supported, also thanks to the SNB selling assets
Threats
  • The euro is no longer receiving support from the monetary policy
  • Appreciation of emerging market currencies remains limited due to geopolitical risks