Unlocking Japan's potential

Published:27 February 2024 16:47 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

Investors from Warren Buffett to Chinese retail investors have taken note of the strong value proposition of Japanese equities, which are not only of high quality but are also based in a geopolitical sweet spot. Additionally, corporate reform remains a powerful force for unlocking value in the Japanese stock market. We maintain our Overweight stance on Japanese equities and increase positions on setbacks. 

We upgraded Japanese equities to Overweight in October 2023, foreseeing a transformative wave driven by corporate reform, Japan’s evolving role as a ‘China alternative’, and greater retail investor participation. While the first two of these dynamics are materialising, the influx of Japanese retail investor flows, facilitated by the revamped tax-advantaged Nippon Individual Savings Account programme, will take more time to come to fruition. With the major Japanese equity indices close to all-time highs, some price consolidation would likely put the recent strong advance on a more sustainable footing. However, the structural case for Japanese equities remains intact and we maintain our Overweight stance. 

CORPORATE REFORM

Corporate reform has gained significant momentum since 15 January 2024, as evidenced by the regulator’s publication of a comprehensive list showing that 40% of companies have disclosed initiatives to reduce the cost of capital and enhance valuations (as at 31 December 2023). These endeavours are poised to unlock latent value embedded within Japanese equities. The strong investment case for Japan is also reflected in the record number of private equity deals (according to Bain & Company) and a record number of share buy-backs, with the number of companies announcing buy-backs exceeding 1,000 in 2023, for the second year in a row. 

DISCLOSURES OF VALUE-ENHANCING INITIATIVES*

FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE STILL UNDERWEIGHT

From Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway last year to Chinese retail investors looking for an alternative to their market this year, there is plenty of flow into Japanese equities. Still, our analysts point out that foreign investors as a group now hold USD 100 billion less than they did 10 years ago. As a result, plenty of global investor flows can still find their way into a reformed corporate Japan.

DEEP MARKET BREADTH AND QUALITY

Japan’s market has the largest average daily trading volume in Asia after China’s onshore market, surpassing even Hong Kong. Its depth and breadth could attract more significant international funds, potentially closing the gap with the leading Chinese exchanges. In addition, importantly, investors can find leading quality companies in Japan. 

JAPAN – A TOURIST DESTINATION

Japan’s tourism numbers are rapidly approaching pre-pandemic levels, with nearly 2.5 million visitors in November 2023. Increased international flights and a temporarily weak currency are making travel to Japan more affordable. The country has also seen an increase in visitors from the US, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East, offsetting the decline in Chinese tourists.

GEOPOLITICAL SWEET SPOT 

Japan seems to be in a sweet spot in what is likely to be a protracted period of tension between the US and China. At the same time, Japanese companies are in many cases leaders and shapers of their industries and are therefore likely to be in demand from both China and the US. 

SONY GROUP CORP 

COMPANY PROFILE

• Sony Corporation is a technology and consumer goods conglomerate. Its key segments are Entertainment, Technology, and Services (ET&S), Game and Network Services (G&NS), Music, Pictures, Imaging and Sensing Solutions (I&SS), and Financial Services (FS; includes life insurance, damage insurance, banking, and credit finance).

KEY RISKS

• With competition stiff, lower demand and prices in the smartphone and television business could pressure margins.

• Sony remains vulnerable to demand shifting towards cloud game streaming from physical consoles.

• There is a risk that the company’s market share in the semiconductor business could decline further. 

KEY INFORMATION AS AT 21.02.2024, 03:41 CET

ISIN 

JP3435000009 

Country 

Japan 

Sector 

Consumer Cyclical 

Subsector 

Cyclical Consumer Goods 

Currency 

JPY 

Price as at 19.02.2024 

13475.00 

FY1 P/E 

18.30 

Dividend yield 

0.63% 

ESG category 

Responsible Investment 

Research rating 

Buy 

SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC

COMPANY PROFILE

• Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is a holding company established by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC). Sumitomo Mitsui Card Company, SMBC Leasing Company, and the Japanese Research Institute Limited joined SMFG in February 2003. The company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. It provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

KEY RISKS

• Low long-term interest rates for an extended period of time in the domestic economy could negatively impact the firm.

• Tightening regulations may be costly for the company.

• A worsening European debt situation could affect the firm’s profits. 

KEY INFORMATION AS AT 21.02.2024, 03:41 CET 

ISIN 

JP3890350006 

Country 

Japan 

Sector 

Financials 

Subsector 

Banks 

Currency 

JPY 

Price as at 19.02.2024 

8185.00 

FY1 P/E 

11.52 

Dividend yield 

4.53% 

ESG category 

Responsible Investment 

Research rating 

Buy 

 

TOKYO ELECTRON LTD 

COMPANY PROFILE

• Tokyo Electron is involved in the development, manufacture, and sale of semiconductor production equipment (SPE) and industrial electronic products for flat panel display (FPD) equipment. It operates through the following segments: SPE, FPD Production Equipment and Others. The company was founded in November 1963 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

KEY RISKS

• The company’s high capital investments may stretch profitability in the near term.

• Tokyo Electron is highly exposed to overseas sales, making it vulnerable to adverse foreign currency movements.

• The semiconductor equipment industry is highly volatile and cyclical in nature. It is also very competitive and the company could face a decline in pricing power due to customer consolidation. 

KEY INFORMATION AS AT 21.02.2024, 03:41 CET 

ISIN 

JP3571400005 

Country 

Japan 

Sector 

Information Technology 

Subsector 

Hardware & Equipment 

Currency 

JPY 

Price as at 19.02.2024 

49.19 

FY1 P/E 

11.52 

Dividend yield 

3.56% 

ESG category 

Sustainable Investment 

Research rating 

Buy 

 

MITSUBISHI CORP 

COMPANY PROFILE

• Mitsubishi Corp is a conglomerate that operates businesses in various industries. The group offers products and services in sectors such as business services, global environment and infrastructure, industrial finance, logistics and development, energy, metals, machinery, chemicals, and living essentials. Its businesses operate in Japan, North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia, and Asia and Oceania. The largest segments of the conglomerate are its energy business group and its metals group.

KEY RISKS

• There is execution risk in connection with the company’s cyclical growth strategy.

• The company may incur impairment charges on investments in existing businesses.

• The company’s results are exposed to sharp declines in coking coal prices. 

KEY INFORMATION AS AT 21.02.2024, 03:41 CET 

ISIN 

JP3898400001 

Country 

Japan 

Sector 

Industrials  

Subsector 

Conglomerates & Distributors 

Currency 

JPY 

Price as at 19.02.2024 

3196.00 

Dividend yield 

3.08% 

ESG category 

Responsible Investment 

Research rating 

Buy 

 

Equity table
Analyst:

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