Our View in February

Published:27 February 2024 18:03 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

The US economy is not slowing down. Quite the opposite: It seems to be gaining momentum, even without interest rate cuts. But this piece of good news could turn out to be less positive for stock markets.

A glass half full can be interpreted in different ways. You know, it's either half full or half empty. Either you are happy that it is still half full. Or you realise that half of the content has already been drunk.

If you look at the sentiment indicators, you can currently find the whole spectrum of such opinions. From completely empty to completely full, from very negative to very positive. On average, you end up somewhere in the middle. Which brings us back to the glass of water: Is it half full or half empty?

In economic terms, we believe it is half full. This has a lot to do with the most recent labour market report in the US. In January, 353,000 new jobs were added, which is the most in a year. More than 300,000 new jobs were created in December. This does not look like the economic downturn that had been expected. There is definitely more water in the glass than there was a few months ago.

From an investment point of view, however, half full is not enough. Paradoxical as it may sound, less economic risk means more market risk in the short term. Because the better the economy performs, the less quickly and less sharply the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. But it has been precisely the hope of rate cuts that has driven markets higher recently. In our view, there is potential for disappointment.

We are therefore keeping our stance for the time being and confirming our underweight in equities. This is also related to the fact that bond markets continue to offer opportunities.

Portfolio

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Strong Overweight
Neutral
Strong Underweight
Opportunities
  • Better economic data in the US
  • High-yield bonds with short residual maturity
  • Emerging market bonds remain attractive
Threats
  • Low volatility
  • Low market breadth
  • (Too) high expectations of the Fed
Economy
Economy Overview

Eurozone gets off to a bumpy start to the year

Right at the start of the year, hopes for better economic development in the eurozone in 2024 have been dashed. Key leading indicators show that the eurozone remains stuck in recession. There is a lack of external economic stimulus in the form of trade and at the same time, the toxic domestic economic mix of high inflation and high interest rates persists. These are certainly not the ingredients for an economic turnaround. First improvements might be on hand when the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rates as expected in the middle of the year. Lower interest rates would help the ailing construction industry, in particular, to get back on its feet. In the meantime, the labour market needs close monitoring. The low level of order intake suggests job reductions, while the shortage of skilled labour is leading to a hoarding of workers.

Opportunities
  • Falling inflation rates open up scope for central banks to cut interest rates
  • Signs of stabilisation in manufacturing, albeit at low levels
Threats
  • The eurozone is in trouble also due to a lack of external trade impetus
  • Despite an improved economic outlook, the global economic environment remains difficult
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Overview

Too great expectations

Expectations by financial markets got out of hand towards the end of 2023 when they hoped for rate cuts in the first half of 2024. In any case, central bankers have recently to dampen these expectations. The head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, made this clear in the run-up to the January meeting of the ECB Governing Council. The head of the US Federal Reserve also left little room for misinterpretation at the most recent meeting that an easing of monetary policy was not imminent. We feel confirmed in our assessment that interest rate cuts are possible from middle of the year onwards, as noticeably lower inflation rates will clear the path to lower rates. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to ease its monetary policy this year thanks to a significantly lower interest rate level.

Opportunities
  • Inflation rates in the US and the eurozone will reach the central bank targets of 2% around the middle of the year
  • Easing inflationary pressure opens room for central banks to cut interest rates
Threats
  • Unexpected high second-round effects could lead to higher inflation rates and stand in the way of a less tight monetary policy
  • Continued strong growth in the US economy could delay interest rate cuts in the US
Bonds High Grade
Bonds High Grade Overview

In the wake of rate cut hopes

Yields on longer maturities have recently moved upwards again. This corresponds with the adjusted expectations regarding interest rate cuts. The central banks in Europe and the US have already dashed hopes of imminent cuts in the first half of the year. They basically said: interest rate cuts are likely this year, but not in the coming months. The markets paid tribute to this and prices of long-term government bonds fell, which was reflected in higher yields. Short-term government bonds, which are primarily based on the policy rates, will therefore remain fairly stable as long as the central banks do not start to cut rates. If policy rates fall, short-dated government bonds are likely to rise more strongly than long-dated bonds.

Opportunities
  • A pronounced economic slowdown causes government bond prices to rise
  • We see record high forward sales of US government bonds as a counter-indicator in favour of falling yields
Threats
  • Easing recession risks could cause yields at the long end of the curve to rise further
  • The Fed could cut interest rates only slightly due to continued favourable economic path
Bonds Emerging Market
Bonds Emerging Market Overview

Emerging market bonds are still attractive

Emerging market bonds also benefited from the general decline in yields at the end of last year. In addition to this market trend, risk premia over US government bonds also came back slightly. Our measuring instrument for this is the Bloomberg Emerging Market Bond Index for bonds in hard currencies. With a yield level of just under 8%, this asset class remains very promising in our view. If yields on government bonds in the US but also in Europe fall in the coming months, emerging market bonds should benefit disproportionately. It can be assumed that risk premia will also continue to fall as yields fall in general. Investors looking for a higher-yielding investment should consider investing in emerging market bonds (in USD or EUR).

Opportunities
  • Yield advantage over government bonds from Europe and the US
  • Major emerging market issuers have become more economically and financially stable
Threats
  • Defaults by individual countries could put emerging market bonds under pressure across the board
  • In the event of financial market stress, risk premia on bonds from industrialised countries could rise
Equities
Equities Overview

Under the spell of the US

The new year has begun as the old one ended: the global stock market continues to be dominated by US technology stocks, namely the Magnificent 7 with Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Co, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts. This led to highs in US indices. At the same time, the Magnificent 7 once again outperformed small-capitalised companies. The latter were only able to break out of the sideways trend for a short time. However, the current sentiment levels leave little room for manoeuvre. In addition, leading indicators, including manufacturing orders, suggest that there will be no recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector. This would run counter to profit expectations, as analysts expect profit growth. Companies' outlooks for 2024 are therefore crucial in the ongoing reporting season.

Opportunities
  • If the US is spared a recession, profits could surprise positively
  • Some markets such as China are trading at historically low levels
Threats
  • Dominance of US equities leads to concentration risk in the MSCI World Index
  • Valuations and sentiment at elevated levels
  • US recession likely and not priced in
  • Disappointment possible due to delayed interest rate cuts
Equities Emerging Market
Equities Emerging Market Overview

When will China find the bottom?

China, as part of most emerging market indices, has performed weakly since January 2023 and was the clear loser among the largest stock markets. As other markets such as India performed strongly, China's weighting in the MSCI Emerging Market fell significantly. In addition to economic and structural difficulties, the lack of major stabilising measures is likely to be the main reason why foreign investors are holding back. According to US bank Goldman Sachs, domestic money mainly flowed into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January, despite an increase in share buybacks and a valuation level that is at historically low levels compared to the MSCI World, as it was last seen between 2013 and 2016. The much higher dividend yield and high earnings expectations also speak in favour of the market. The indices are still weak technically and offer potential for short-term but sharp recoveries, if at all.

Opportunities
  • Low valuation of the Chinese stock market
  • Some regions held up better than markets in industrialised nations
  • Earlier interest rate cuts possible than in industrialised nations
Threats
  • Lost confidence in index heavyweight China
  • More measures needed to boost the Chinese economy and thus the markets
  • No complete decoupling from developments in industrialised nations
Commodities
Commodities Overview

Our View on Gold

Unchanged starting position

The latest data from the World Gold Council confirms that the persistently high level of interest rates and the high gold price are deterring buyers. In the fourth quarter, demand for jewellery as well as bars and coins was weaker than in the previous year. Investors remained cautious also on the financial markets. While listed gold funds continued to struggle with outflows, speculative investors on futures markets priced out an interest rate cut by the Fed in March. Nevertheless, the gold price was able to maintain its level of recent months. So not only the technical but also the fundamental picture has improved somewhat. In our view, the path for the current year is still set. However, as there are no decisive drivers in the short term, there is still potential for disappointment.

Opportunities
  • Interest rate cut speculation increases attractiveness of interest-free investments
  • Fragile geopolitical environment reinforces safe haven status
  • Looming recession has a supportive effect
Threats
  • Continued outflows from listed funds
  • Speculative positions have further potential for adjustment
  • Technical sideways movement for more than three years
Cash
Cash Overview

No continued dollar weakness expected

The dollar weakened in the autumn months. This was due to hopes by market participants that Fed would loosen monetary policy soon. However, many in currency trading started to realise that the other central banks would not remain inactive. This applies in particular to the European Central Bank (ECB). We expect the ECB to cut interest rates by a bigger amount than the Fed. This should prevent a more sustained slide in the dollar. And something else counts as well: Geopolitical uncertainties are and will stay high, which is why the greenback will still be in demand due to its role as a safe haven. For the time being, currency markets are unlikely to take a clear position in favour of or against the dollar. In any case, we see our expectation of a sideways movement confirmed and are sticking to it.

Opportunities
  • Dollar stays in demand due to economic uncertainties and monetary policy reversals
  • The Swiss franc remains well supported, also thanks to SNB interventions
Threats
  • The euro is no longer supported by monetary policy 
  • Appreciation of emerging market currencies remains limited due to geopolitical risks