Our View in March

Published:27 March 2024 18:51 CET
Analyst:
Nadiia D, Content Manager, nadiia.d@adviscent.com

The record highs for Bitcoin, gold and Japanese equities have triggered some buzz. Conversely, the sentiment in China is rather bleak at the moment. From an investment perspective, this makes Chinese equities interesting.

A good mood is contagious. When people at a party are celebrating and dancing, you hardly just stand there with a sad face, even if you haven't had the best of days.

A festive mood may also attract and absorb attention. A wild party with loud music attracts more attention than a small get-together to discuss a friend's job problems.

It feels similar on the financial markets at the moment. The mood is particularly good for Bitcoin and its ilk. There is hardly a day without new highs being passed.

At the same time, many stock markets are also doing well. The Japanese Nikkei index has even surpassed its high recorded at the end of 1989. This produces headlines and absorbs attention.

But there is also a world away from parties. And things are not going so well there. China is one such case. The property crisis has left deep scars, the economy is struggling and the stock market is miles away from its record highs.

This is perhaps precisely why the National People's Congress recently ended with the announcement of ambitious growth targets. This was, of course, reported on, but it was almost lost in the wake of other record-breaking news in other asset classes.

When the mood is so low and attention is focused elsewhere, it doesn't take much for things to pick up again.

We have therefore decided to step out of line a little and move Chinese equities to overweight in our portfolio. Overall, we continue to favour bonds over equities. 

Portfolio

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Strong Overweight
Neutral
Strong Underweight
Opportunities
  • Better economic indicators
  • US high-yield bonds with short residual maturity
  • Favourable valuation of Chinese equities
Threats
  • Large divergences between regions and sectors
  • Low market breadth for US equities
  • US inflation as a potential spoilsport
Economy
Economy Overview

US performs better than expected

Growth in the US is likely to be higher than we expected this year. The real-time GDP indicator "GDPnow" calculated by the Fed Atlanta indicates robust economic growth in the first quarter. At the same time, lower inflation rates are opening up the scope for interest rate cuts. This is particularly the case if the economy weakens noticeably over the next few quarters. The Fed could then provide stimulus to the economy. At the same time, economic weakness would also slow consumer demand, which would additionally soften inflation. We expect a solid growth of 2% for 2024.

Opportunities
  • Declining inflation giving central banks leeway to cut interest rates
  • Signs of stabilisation in the industry - albeit at a low level
Threats
  • Eurozone remains in trouble
  • Difficult global economic environment despite better economic prospects in the US
Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Overview

Difficult picture

Inflation trends are currently a mixed bag. On the one hand, inflation rates are falling year-on-year, while on the other hand, price momentum on both sides of the Atlantic picked up sharply in February compared to January. This will be of particular interest to central bankers. After the inflation shock of recent years, they want to ensure that the upward pressure on prices has been contained for good. We therefore do not expect interest rates to be cut for the time being. The situation could change in the middle of the year if inflation rates have fallen further. In view of the continued solid growth of the US economy, the Fed is likely to hold off on any significant interest rate cuts. Against the backdrop of our adjusted US economic outlook, we now expect interest rate cuts of 75 basis points in the US instead of 125.

Opportunities
  • Inflation rates in the US and the eurozone will probably reach the target of 2% by the middle of the year
  • Interest rate cuts an option thanks to easing inflationary pressure
Threats
  • Second-round effects could cause inflation rates to rise and stand in the way of monetary easing
  • Solid growth of the US economy could prevent the Fed from easing monetary policy
Bonds High Grade
Bonds High Grade Overview

Changing expectations

Although inflation rates are likely to fall further in the coming months, the big steps are over. As in a long-distance run, the last few metres are the hardest; this is also true for inflation. Moreover, the US economy is still proving to be robust. The mix of a slow decline in inflation and solid growth has influenced interest rate expectations. The money markets are currently still expecting interest rate cuts of 90 basis points. In January, the expectation was for 170 basis points. The change in monetary policy expectations led to a rise in yields in the long-term segment. Yields should fall again in the second half of the year.

Opportunities
  • The Fed will be able to cut rates as of mid-year, which should lead to a decline in yields
  • The high forward sales of US government bonds, which we see as a counter-indicator, speak in favour of falling yields
Threats
  • Easing economic concerns could cause yields at the long end of the yield curve to rise
  • The Fed could decide on only minor rate cuts due to the economic developments
Bonds Investment Grade
Bonds Investment Grade Overview

Record issuance and record liquidity

US companies issued a record USD 172 bn bonds in February. The volume was easily absorbed by the market. Credit spreads on investment-grade bonds remained unchanged at 0.96%, while credit spreads on high-yield bonds (rated below BBB) even fell by 30 basis points to 3.15%. In addition to increasing optimism about the soft landing scenario for the US economy, the high level of liquidity is also ensuring favourable financing conditions. In money market funds alone, more than USD 6 trillion are waiting for higher-yielding investments. According to our estimates, the premiums for high-yield bonds should be around 2 percentage points higher. The market has probably anticipated some of the good news already. Given the current yield of 7.8%, a correction would be manageable. We are sticking to our recommendation and are holding on to US high-yield bonds with a short duration.

Opportunities
  • Soft landing scenario in the US with increased probability
  • High liquidity provides support for corporate bonds
  • Yields on high-yield bonds particularly attractive
Threats
  • Credit spreads for investment grade bonds at a very low level
  • Inflation flaring up again remains the biggest risk
  • De-globalisation, wage pressure and high government debt pose risks for corporate bonds
Equities
Equities Overview

Japan's Nikkei in the spotlight

The favourable stock market environment continued in February. Some equity indices reached all-time highs, such as the Japanese Nikkei 225 index, which has topped the performance rankings so far this year. Even the Chinese indices are showing the first signs of hope. The reason for this overall confident mood is the growing expectation that the recession in the US will not materialise and that the economic situation in China will stabilise. On the other hand, the more broadly spread price increase, although still too narrow, calls for caution. In addition, the improved economic expectations have now been priced in. With the recent move higher, a lot of good news is already priced in and the valuation, particularly of the US market, is no longer attractive. The risk of setbacks is increasing.

Opportunities
  • The global economy is in better shape than feared
  • Higher profit growth and share buybacks have a positive effect
Threats
  • US equity market is richly valued
  • Insufficient market breadth in the US as a risk factor
Equities Emerging Market
Equities Emerging Market Overview

Things in China are very different

While the US and Europe are still battling inflation, China is preoccupied with deflationary forces. In the US, interest rates are at a cyclical high, while they are moving downwards  in China. While some global stock markets are celebrating all-time highs, indices in China are far from it. Things there are very different. The economy is struggling with a property crisis and weak consumer demand. Added to this is the trade dispute with the US. Various official stimulus measures have so far failed to satisfy investors' expectations. Many investors are therefore avoiding the Chinese stock market. There is a great deal of pessimism, in stark contrast to the positive mood on the world stock markets. This can also be seen as an opportunity. In such an environment, small positive surprises are often enough to trigger a change in sentiment that promises at least temporary price gains.

Opportunities
  • Many negative factors already priced in
  • Low hurdle for positive surprises
Threats
  • End of the property crisis in China not yet in sight
  • Increasing headwinds due to demographic shifts
US High Yield Bonds
US High Yield Bonds Overview

The hare and the hedgehog

Convertible bonds have only partially recovered from the "annus horribilis" in 2022. Compared to the equity market, they are lagging far behind. This is mainly due to the Magnificent 7 stocks that play no role in convertible bonds. Of these seven companies, car manufacturer Tesla is the only one with an outstanding convertible bond, although it expires in mid-March.

Convertible bonds are suitable for defensive investors. The economic outlook has improved, especially for the main US segment. After a long time, convertible bonds are once again trading at positive yields to maturity (1.3%). And with the bond floor, losses are limited compared to the equity market. As soon as the equity bull market is broadening, convertible bonds will benefit. On the bond side, things are also looking good for longer-term investors. So convertible bonds are interesting for the long-run type of investors, but less so for sprinters.

Opportunities
  • Yields to maturity positive again after a long time
  • Bond floor protects against major losses
Threats
  • Not benefiting from the AI boom
  • Develop less dynamically than the stock market
  • Investors need to be aware of currency risks
Commodities
Commodities Overview

Gold rush

After four years of sideways movement, gold has reached a new record high. The reason for the rally remains difficult to explain, as listed gold funds recorded outflows for the ninth time in a row in February. However, speculative investors in the futures markets bet on a gold rush, as can be seen by the net long positions, which recently increased significantly. Consumer and central bank demand from emerging markets also remains strong. Physical gold, in the form of jewellery, bars or coins, is particularly in demand in China and India. The property crisis in China as well as the booming economy in India have led to increased purchases. We continue to see the environment for gold as attractive in the medium-term, but see the potential for setbacks in the short-term. 

Opportunities
  • Interest rate cut speculation increases attractiveness of interest-free investments
  • Fragile geopolitical environment reinforces safe haven status
  • Upward move following a multi-year consolidation
Threats
  • Continued outflows from listed funds
  • Inflation remains elevated and could delay interest rate cuts
  • Overbought in the short-term and could face setback
Cash
Cash Overview

Sideways movement intact - yen under observation

Although the dollar has recently weakened somewhat, the devaluations have been more in the homeopathic range. By and large, the currency markets continue to be characterised by a sideways movement. There is still great reluctance to take a clear position on currency markets. However, the Japanese yen offers potential for surprise. The Japanese central bank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), reserves the right to change its still expansive monetary policy. Should the BoJ actually decide to raise the key interest rate in the coming months, the yen could appreciate significantly. There is no consensus among economists as to what the future monetary policy course in Japan will look like. There is therefore potential for surprises. But a rapid change in Japanese monetary policy is not to be expected in the short term. At least on this there is a consensus on currency markets.

Opportunities
  • The dollar will remain in demand due to economic uncertainty and monetary policy upheaval
  • The Swiss franc remains well supported, also thanks to SNB foreign exchange market interventions
Threats
  • The euro is no longer receiving support from the monetary policy side.
  • Limited potential for emerging market currencies in view of geopolitical risks
Equities Switzerland
Equities Switzerland Overview